Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free
Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
When JD Vance took the stage at the Munich Security Conference last week, he issued a stern warning. The US vice-president told the assembled politicians and diplomats that free speech and democracy are under attack from European elites: “The threat I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China, it’s . . . the threat from within.”
If Vance hoped to persuade his audience, rather than simply insult it, he failed. Indeed, his speech backfired spectacularly, convincing many listeners that America itself is now a threat to Europe. In the throng outside the conference hall, a prominent German politician told me: “That was a direct assault on European democracy.” A senior diplomat said: “It’s very clear now, Europe is alone.” When I asked him if he now regarded the US as an adversary, he replied: “Yes.”
The most positive verdict I heard on the speech was that it was “puerile bullshit”, but aimed at a US audience and therefore safely ignored. But unpack Vance’s speech — and place it in the context of Donald Trump’s decision to engage Vladimir Putin, while sidelining Ukraine and Europe — and it becomes clear that American culture wars, international security and European politics can no longer be disentangled.
What Vance did was to subvert the ideas of freedom, democracy and shared values that have underpinned the western alliance for 80 years. In his world the battle for freedom in Europe is no longer about deterring an autocratic and aggressive Russia, as it was for Harry Truman or Ronald Reagan. Vance’s fight for freedom is a battle is to save “western civilisation”, as defined by Elon Musk and others, from the twin threats of mass immigration and the “woke mind virus”.
The Trump administration’s ideology means that, in important respects, it now feels more affinity with Putin than Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Putin is seen as a warrior fighting for his country and for conservative values; the Ukrainian is dismissed as a freeloader with all the wrong friends in Europe.
The Trump administration regards the European far right as its true allies. In appealing for the likes of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to be welcomed into government, Vance is calling for Europe to turn into a larger version of Viktor Orbán’s Hungary — a soft autocracy with a soft spot for Putin’s Russia. It was telling that, in Munich, Vance found time to meet Alice Weidel, the AfD’s co-leader, but not with Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Before considering the implications for Europe of what Vance said, we should pause to note its deep hypocrisy. Trump attempted to overthrow the 2020 US presidential election. And his vice-president presumes to lecture Europeans about respect for democracy?
Vance’s arguments were classic Russian-style “whataboutism” — deflecting attention from the Trump administration’s assault on the US’s democratic institutions and looming betrayal of Ukraine — with anecdotes about the alleged persecution of anti-abortion activists in Britain. Whether he believes any of this is of purely psychological interest. It is the strategic implications for Europe that matter.
Trump clearly intends to cut a deal on Ukraine with Putin over the heads of Zelenskyy and the Europeans. That could have tragic consequences for Ukraine, which may soon be asked to accept loss of territory without security guarantees for the future. The alternative would be to try to fight on without American help.
The implications for the rest of Europe are also alarming. Putin wants Nato troops removed from the whole of the former Soviet empire. European officials believe Trump is likely to agree to withdraw US troops from the Baltics and perhaps further west, leaving the EU vulnerable to a Russian army that Nato governments warn is preparing for a larger conflict beyond Ukraine.
It is clear that the US can no longer be regarded as a reliable ally for the Europeans. But the Trump administration’s political ambitions for Europe mean that, for now, America is also an adversary — threatening democracy in Europe and even European territory, in the case of Greenland.
So what to do? Europeans need to start preparing fast for the day when the US security guarantee to Europe is definitively removed. That must involve building up autonomous defence industries. It should also mean a European mutual defence pact, outside Nato, that extends beyond the EU — to include Britain, Norway and others.
Trump will use any leverage he has to force America’s European allies into compliance on issues from trade and security to their domestic politics. That means that Europe must now start the painful process of “de-risking” its relationship with the US, looking for areas of dangerous dependence on America and stripping them out of the system.
Entrusting critical infrastructure to Musk would create a huge new vulnerability. The Trump administration will also put enormous pressure on Europeans to buy more American weaponry. Under current circumstances that would be folly.
Many Europeans will balk at these ideas, dismissing them as impossible. But they need to understand that their freedom is now at stake. Vance was right about that. Just not in the way he thought.