Just weeks ago, scientists warned that a “city killer” asteroid had a small chance of hitting Earth. While that prediction was thankfully revised, the planet may have to worry about another object plummeting down from the heavens — a 1970s spacecraft called Kosmos 482.
The Soviet-era spacecraft meant to land on Venus a half century ago is expected to soon plunge uncontrolled back to Earth.
It’s too early to know where the half-ton mass of metal might come down or how much of it will survive reentry, according to space debris-tracking experts.
Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek, a lecturer at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, predicts the failed spacecraft will reenter around May 10. He estimates it will come crashing in at 150 mph, if it remains intact.
“While not without risk, we should not be too worried,” Langbroek said in an email.
The object is relatively small and, even if it doesn’t break apart, “the risk is similar to that of a random meteorite fall, several of which happen each year. You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime,” he said.
The chance of the spacecraft actually hitting someone or something is small, he added. “But it cannot be completely excluded.”
Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Center for Astrophysics at Harvard & Smithsonian, told NPR that the spacecraft is making its “final death plunge.“
“I expect it’ll have the usual one-in-several-thousand chance of hitting someone,” McDowell wrote last month. “No need for major concern, but you wouldn’t want it bashing you on the head.”
Kosmos 482 launched in 1972
The Soviet Union launched Kosmos 482 in 1972, one of a series of Venus missions. But it never made it out of Earth’s orbit because of a rocket malfunction.
Most of it came tumbling down within a decade. But Langbroek and others believe the landing capsule itself — a spherical object about 3 feet in diameter — has been circling the world in a highly elliptical orbit for the past 53 years, gradually dropping in altitude.
It’s quite possible that the 1,000-pound-plus spacecraft will survive reentry. It was built to withstand a descent through the carbon dioxide-thick atmosphere of Venus, said Langbroek.
Experts doubt the parachute system would work after so many years. The heat shield may also be compromised after so long in orbit.
It would be better if the heat shield fails, which would cause the spacecraft to burn up during its dive through the atmosphere, McDowell said in an email. But if the heat shield holds, “it’ll reenter intact and you have a half-ton metal object falling from the sky.”
The spacecraft could reenter anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude, or as far north as London and Edmonton in Alberta, Canada, almost all the way down to South America’s Cape Horn. But since most of the planet is water, “chances are good it will indeed end up in some ocean,” Langbroek said.
Space debris could impact planes
Space junk crashing back back to Earth could be a growing problem for aircraft, researchers warned in a recent study.
The study’s authors said that the probability of space debris hitting an airplane is small, but the risk is rising due to increases in both space debris reentries and flights.
The study found that high-density regions close to major airports have an 0.8% chance per year of being affected by an uncontrolled rocket reentry, but in “larger but still busy” airspace areas like those found in the northeastern U.S. or around major cities in Asia, the risk rose to 26%.
“While the probability of a strike is low, the consequences could be catastrophic,” the researchers said in the study, which was published in Scientific Reports.
Space junk has hit Earth recently
Space debris has crashed back into Earth in recent months.
In February, debris from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket that blasted off in the United States entered the Earth’s atmosphere over Poland. Two chunks from an unidentified object — both measuring about 5 feet by 3 feet — were later found on the ground. Police said it was possible the objects came from the SpaceX rocket.
Last New Year’s Eve, fragments of metal, believed to be from a rocket, crashed into a village in Kenya.
In March 2024, NASA faced a lawsuit from a family whose Florida home was hit by a piece of falling metal.
The month before that, the European Space Agency said a satellite — weighing as much as an adult male rhinoceros — made an uncontrolled return to Earth, reentering the atmosphere over the north Pacific Ocean between Alaska and Hawaii. Most of the satellite burned up as it reentered Earth’s atmosphere.