The EU and a handful of other countries have been left unusually isolated as they push for action to tackle global warming, after geopolitical schisms spilled into climate policies at the UN COP30 summit in Brazil.
The meeting of 194 countries for more than two weeks in the tropical temperatures of the city of Belém nearly ended in collapse on Saturday when the EU warned of the possibility of a “no deal”. Countries such as the UK considered walking out.
Their efforts to directly reference fossil fuels or ambitious climate action language in a final agreement were blocked again and again by countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Martina Egedusevic, an expert in nature-based solutions and risk management at the University of Exeter, said COP30 would be “remembered as the moment global leadership simply evaporated”.
“At a time when extreme heat, catastrophic floods and wildfires are setting new records every year, negotiators still could not summon the basic courage to stand up to fossil fuel interests,” she said.
Benoît Faraco, the ambassador in charge of climate change negotiations for France, said the EU and France had fought for a road map away from fossil fuels and deforestation all the way into the early hours of Saturday morning, in “bloc against bloc” negotiations, but to no avail.
“It is profoundly worrying to realise that climate multilateralism is still something that needs to be protected, that there is everything to play for,” he said.
Ultimately, the EU, UK and others settled for a less ambitious deal that referenced fossil fuels only implicitly by citing a broad agreement from two years ago to transition away from coal, oil and gas by 2050.
Wopke Hoekstra, the EU’s climate commissioner, said the deal was “not perfect, but it is a hugely important step in the right direction”.
But the direct omission of fossil fuels in energy systems, the chief cause of greenhouse gas emissions, reinforced deep divisions between countries over the pace at which to pivot towards renewable sources.
More than 80 countries had initially backed a proposal for a so-called road map aimed at setting out how countries could shift away from fossil fuels during the two-week talks. By the final night of talks, the EU, UK, Colombia and a handful of other nations remained the driving forces.
Many other poorer and middle income countries are betting that oil and gas will deliver more near-term benefits for their economies even if the long-term consequences of global warming will be devastating.
A veteran COP participant, Michael Jacobs, senior fellow at the ODI Global think-tank, said Saudi Arabia, Russia and India’s opposition to discussions on a road map for the shift from fossil fuels had been “implacable”, describing an “axis of obstruction”.
India and African nations had also countered that more money was needed before the developing world could commit to further climate action. The final agreement included a plan for the tripling of finance by 2035 to help developing countries adapt to a warming world, a level which rich nations had initially strongly rejected.
Bad feeling hung over the Indian delegation, after its complaint that the previous COP29 in Baku was “stage-managed” and its long-standing concerns about inadequate levels of finance had been ignored.
Climate finance must be counted in “trillions, not billions”, said environment minister Bhupender Yadav in Belém, and richer countries should bring forward their net zero target dates instead. After holding out, India agreed to submit a long-overdue updated climate plan to the UN by next month.
China joined India, Saudi Arabia and others exporters in using COP as an opportunity to spar with the EU over its soon-to-be-introduced carbon border tax. The final agreement set out plans for further trade talks next year.
Other than on this issue, China remained quieter than expected at talks where the petrostates took centre stage. This is despite China’s renewable energy boom and President Xi Jinping’s affirmation that green energy is the “trend of our time”.
COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago said Brazil would spend the next year overseeing two separate road map initiatives, looking at fossil fuels and deforestation.
Simon Stiell, head of the UN’s climate change arm, said this course would not be “as strong” as if it had been in the formal agreement dubbed the Global Mutirão, a term for collective action. “But it is still something.”
Ahead of COP30, issues such as adaptation and national climate plans had been expected to dominate. It was not anticipated that “fossil fuels would be the defining issue at this COP”, said Siân Bradley, head of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, including France, Denmark, Sweden, Costa Rica and Ireland.
“If we get this [road map process] right over the next year, COP30 could still be the moment the global transition away from fossil fuels really began,” she added.
France’s climate envoy Faraco agreed. “Brazil has a year to demonstrate this was only the start of something . . . It’s for them to lead us down this path that they initiated.”
That path will lead to the COP31 summit, to be held in Turkey with Australia overseeing negotiations — because of the failure of countries to reach consensus on the next presidency.
But at a joint press conference held in the final hours of COP30, neither Turkey nor Australia wanted to give any indication of how they would deal with the question of how to quit fossil fuels.
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