As Nancy Guthrie ransom deadline nears, investigators appear uncertain if it’s real: Experts

As a possible deadline was set for Monday for Nancy Guthrie’s family — including her daughter, “Today” host Savannah Guthrie — to pay a ransom to get her back, experts said law enforcement appears to still be trying to determine if the real kidnappers are behind the demands.

In two unverified notes sent to media outlets, the person who claims to have kidnapped the 84-year-old Guthrie from her Arizona home set a 5 p.m. PT deadline for the family to pay a ransom in bitcoin.

Law enforcement officials have said they are taking the notes seriously, but have not confirmed their authenticity.

“There hasn’t been a lot of evidence. You may have an abductor communicating, but we’re not even sure of that yet because there was no proof of life on either emails or text, whatever they got,” said retired FBI special agent Rich Frankel, a former hostage negotiator for the bureau.

Over the weekend, Savannah Guthrie and her brother and sister released their third video to the possible abductor since their mother disappeared from her Tucson area home sometime between the night of Jan. 31 and the early morning hours of Feb. 1.

“We received your message and we understand,” Savannah Guthrie said in a video on Instagram on Saturday. “We beg you now to return our mother to us so we can celebrate with her. This is the only way we will have peace. This is very valuable to us, and we will pay.”

On Monday, Savannah Guthrie made a direct appeal for the public’s assistance in solving the case, saying in an Instagram post, “We are at an hour of desperation, and we need your help.”

“We believe our mom is still out there,” she said. “We need your help. Law enforcement is working tirelessly, around the clock, trying to bring her home.”

Still more questions than answers

Pima County, Arizona, Sheriff’s Investigators were seen back at Nancy Guthrie’s home over the weekend, apparently checking a rooftop camera and a septic tank on the property.

Investigators were also spotted taking items from the home of Guthrie’s daughter, Annie, where Nancy Guthrie had dinner in the hours before she vanished.

Among the evidence, investigators have confirmed are blood drops on the front porch matching Nancy Guthrie’s DNA, a propped-open door and a doorbell camera that had been disconnected.

“It does look like to us, she was taken from that house against her will in the middle of the night,” Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos told ABC News last week.

Investigators said Nancy Guthrie’s cellphone and her Apple Watch, which was disconnected from her pacemaker, were left behind at her home along with her heart medication, Nanos said she needs to survive.

“They’re still identifying stuff at the house. I mean, the house should have been completely gone through by an evidence response team,” Frankel said. “You would think that stuff would have been done during the original search.”

Frankel said some potential evidence may have been lost due to electronic communications and security cameras getting overwritten after a certain amount of time.

Frankel said hostage negotiators are likely advising the Guthries not to pay the ransom without proof that Nancy Guthrie is still alive or present evidence that the person who sent the ransom note is real.

“At this point, it would be something where you would say we need a picture, we need a video, we need to hear her voice right now,” Frankel said. “But the other problem with that now, because of AI and everything, that could be auto-generated, but at least the FBI and other agencies could check to see if that is real or not.”

Frankel said Monday remains a “big day” in the investigation.

“You’re hoping that today there is some movement in that the hostage taker responds back and says, ‘You didn’t do this, so we’re going to do something’ or, ‘You didn’t do this, so we’re going to give you another hour,'” Frankel said. “Then, hopefully, the Guthrie family can then go on air and say, ‘OK, we know that you reached out to us again, but we still need something more.'”

He said investigators will likely do whatever they can to stretch out the ransom deadline.

“What they will do is they will keep trying to communicate or investigate until that time and through that time, because you don’t want that to be the deadline,” Frankel said.

Frankel added, “It’s really not to extend the deadline, it’s to use the deadline as your conversation tool so you can keep talking to them and know that, ‘Hey, listen, yeah, there’s a deadline, but don’t do what you said, we’re still working on it, but we’re still working on it. We need you to communicate with us so that we can get to a successful resolution where no one is injured.'”

There’s been no give and take with the possible abductor

Retired FBI agent Brad Garrett said traditionally, hostage takers give demands and then respond to the people the communication is made to.

“There’s a give and take. This is not even designed or set up to give and take in either direction, either from the bad guys or the Guthrie family,” Garrett said on Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”

“As a result, this is kind of a one-way street in a way, of the bad guys basically saying, ‘You need to do X, and you need to do Y,'” Garrett said.

Garrett said on Monday that he suspects that investigators resumed their search of Nancy Guthrie’s home over the weekend in an attempt to corroborate what was in the messages from the possible kidnapper.

“Did they mention specific items that had been moved, and their location? Where the blood is, things that would corroborate that at least you feel comfortable that the bad guys were actually in this house,” Garrett said. “So that’s one aspect. The other could be a forensic one, that they’ve come up with let’s say DNA of a possible person and going back and searching for that.”

Investigators confirmed that they also obtained surveillance video of what they described as a suspicious vehicle parked at a gas station near Nancy Guthrie’s home during a 45-minute window in which investigators suspect she was taken.

Garrett said the chances are slim that such a clue could lead to a break in the case.

“I would say based on experience that the vast majority of those types of leads don’t go anywhere,” Garrett said. “But having said that, all you need is one.”