Kalshi, the largest U.S. prediction market, accused a small data startup called Juice Reel of “extortion” after a stock analyst used the company’s transaction-level data to argue that prediction market users lose money faster than gamblers on traditional betting apps — then walked the allegation back hours later.
The equity research analyst Jordan Bender at Citizens found that the bottom quarter of prediction market users lost about 28 cents of every dollar wagered in their first three months, compared to roughly 11 cents per dollar on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings. Kalshi’s head of communications told Bloomberg the report was “flat-out wrong” and called the data an extortion attempt. Juice Reel CEO Ricky Gold said Kalshi had actually pressured him to tell Bloomberg the data was inaccurate. Kalshi later issued an updated statement saying it continued to dispute the findings but “after further review, we don’t believe the intention was extortion.” The company did not provide any data to counter the analysis.