Unpacking claims Polymarket bets on Iran strikes point to insider knowledge

After the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, rumors circulated online that brand-new accounts on the betting site Polymarket made suspiciously well-timed wagers about when the attack would take place. Users suggested the timing of the bets pointed to the bettors having insider knowledge about the plans of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. 

Posts spreading the rumor appeared on Instagram, Facebook and X. One X post claimed “six Polymarket wallets made $1M betting on U.S. strikes against Iran,” all of which were “created and funded within 24 hours of the attack” (archived): 

The post read, in part: 

That’s insane. If federal officials, military personnel, or people with classified information are making millions on geopolitical events before the public knows, you don’t have a prediction market—you have legalized insider trading with a blockchain wrapper. This isn’t forecasting; it’s exploitation. The fact that this keeps happening and the platform defends it tells you everything about priorities: volume over integrity.

The post also mentioned a rumor Snopes previously investigated claiming that someone close to the Trump administration made $400,000 from bets related to the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. The user said these two instances looked like a pattern of placing bets based on insider knowledge. 

Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut, also shared the claim on X, saying “it’s insane this is legal” and promising to introduce a bill to outlaw the practice (archived): 

It’s true that six newly created Polymarket wallets made wagers on the correct timing of U.S. strikes on Iran and won a combined $1.2 million on the trade. However, we could not confirm the people behind the accounts received insider knowledge by being close to, or part of, the Trump administration. As such, we’ve left this claim unrated. We contacted the White House and the Department of Defense asking for comment regarding the claims and will update this report if we receive responses.

The rumor stemmed from two X posts by Bubblemaps SA, a visual analytics platform (archived, archived). The company shared its insights and listed all six Polymarket accounts:

JUST IN: Six suspected insiders made $1.2M betting on a US strike on Iran 

Most of these wallets: 

• were funded in the last 24h 
• specifically bet for February 28 
• bought “yes” hours before the strike

Polymarket makes all data about its users and their bets publicly available. Snopes reviewed all six accounts mentioned in the posts and confirmed that none of them had a history of gambling before these particular bets on the timing of U.S. strikes on Iran. We also confirmed that they won a combined total of  $1,165,506,25 — without discounting the amount of money they staked. 

While some of the accounts were created at least several days before the attack, all six of them laid odds on a Feb. 28 attack on Iran the day before it happened, confirming Bubblemaps’ claim that they had all been funded within hours of the strikes beginning. 

A review of activity for the account that made the most from the wager — more than half a million dollars — showed it began to buy “yes” shares on the U.S. striking Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, as early as Feb. 25. 

Another account, @Planktonbets, showed activity as early as 10 days prior, around Feb. 17. This account had made and lost several bets before settling on Feb. 28 for the attack. It wagered the U.S. would attack Iran on Feb. 15, 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21 — and it appeared the account laid odds on Feb. 15 after the date had already passed. @Planktonbets won $200,747.07.

A third account, @Neodbs, gambled solely on a Feb. 28 attack two days before it took place. The wallet earned $98,837.50.

The other three accounts — @Dicedicedice, @nothingeverhappens911 and an anonymous user — only showed activity from Feb. 27. They won $149,954.77, $85,319.61 and $55,555.56, respectively.

Meanwhile, an account known as @Magamyman also drew the attention of internet users and news outlets for another related bet: on whether Ali Khamenei would be ousted as Iran’s supreme leader by March 31, 2026. The wallet made $143,321.30 on this wager. After losing a number of bets on previous possible strike dates, @Magamyman also made $431,146.10 placing money on the prediction that the attack would take place on Feb. 28. This account had been active since October 2024. 

In total, Polymarket users gambled more than $500 million on the date the U.S. would strike Iran.