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The last known shipment of jet fuel to the UK from the Middle East is expected to arrive this week, pointing to the fast-approaching impact of the Iran war on airlines and travellers.
The shipment, on the Libyan-flagged Maetiga vessel, is due to arrive in the UK around Thursday from Saudi Arabia, data providers Kpler and Vortexa said. No other UK-bound cargoes from the region are visible on the water, given the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, they added.
The UK has sourced at least half of its jet fuel from the Middle East in recent months, after turning away from Russian supplies following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and amid a decline in domestic refining.
The government has insisted that people should not worry about supply issues, and should book their summer holidays as normal. However, that message is increasingly juxtaposed with warnings from industry figures about coming shortages if the Iran war continues.
Although official data on jet fuel storage is scarce, industry consultants and analysts say that airlines will start to be hit at the end of April if the supply constraints persist.
“Market understanding is that fuel shortages are not far away in some countries” and “higher prices are to trickle through the entire supply chain and will be felt by all,” said Janiv Shah, vice-president of oil markets at consultancy Rystad Energy.
The supply disruption has been “quite a mess”, said a senior jet fuel manager. Benchmark north-west European prices for jet fuel closed at $1,744 per tonne on Friday — roughly double prewar levels, according to price reporting agency Argus Media.
On average there have been eight jet fuel cargoes from the Middle East to the UK at any one time recently. The last time there was just one was in 2021, said Vortexa.
Europe gets around 40 per cent of its jet fuel via the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently nearly completely shut. The UK receives jet fuel directly from the Middle East, while additional supplies arrive indirectly, particularly via the Netherlands and Belgium.
Lars van Wageningen, research and consultancy manager at data provider Insights Global, said Belgium and the Netherlands were likely to be in a similar position to the UK with few Middle Eastern cargoes expected to arrive in the short term.
The threat of shortages could still be mitigated if traders supplying airlines in the UK can bid enough to redirect cargoes currently destined for other countries. European buyers will seek additional jet fuel supplies from refineries in West Africa and the US, said van Wageningen.
A jet fuel cargo from Nigeria arrived at Milford Haven in the UK on Monday. “The system doesn’t stop — it reshuffles,” said Matt Stanley, head of market engagement for the Emea and Apac regions at Kpler. “It’s really a story of rerouting and price adjusting, rather than an outright shortage.”
Vortexa said the competition for jet fuel cargoes from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Yanbu port — which do not go via the Strait of Hormuz — was getting “stronger every day.” Those that are able to pay more will now be looking to source from elsewhere, analysts said.
According to Argus Media, there has been an increase in jet fuel exports from the US to Europe — largely the UK — in recent weeks. Russian imports accounted for about 5 per cent of UK jet fuel demand before the Ukraine war.
Trade body AirportsUK said some hubs stored jet fuel, but that airlines mostly dealt with suppliers.
A spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said: “Jet fuel shipments are continuing to arrive in the UK. The UK receives imports of jet fuel from India, USA and the Netherlands as well as smaller amounts from a range of other countries.”
Sir Keir Starmer gathered leaders from the energy, shipping, finance and insurance sectors at Downing Street on Monday to discuss the crisis. “This is going to have to be a joint effort,” the prime minister told the roundtable event.
Additional reporting by Lucy Fisher