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There is little science behind figuring out what books will hit it big. That statement is both one that’s true and one that’s a little bit misleading. Authors who have had breakout hits or who are reliably good or who have a history of being award winners will be pretty good bets on seeing their latest book be “big.” But beyond that, much of it comes down to what’s hot in the publishing market and how much money and publicity/marketing effort goes into any title.
In the YA world and beyond, much of that effort can be visualized through print runs and ad spending that happens even before the book is anywhere near hitting shelves. Print runs are the projected number of books to be published—it’s not always accurate nor necessarily true, but instead, a picture of anticipated interest—and advertisement on books pre-publication can be in your traditional outlets, as well as newsletters, social media, influencers, and the one that has become more and more prominent in the last several years: flashier spots in publisher catalogs on sites like Edelweiss.
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Whats Up in YA
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I pulled together a big roundup in the fall of 2024 of the YA books positioned to be among the biggest in the first part of 2025, and I used this as my example for how I worked a little art and a little science. You can see the print run right in the advertisement for Avatar, the Last Airbender: The Reckoning of Roku by Randy Ribay:
Let’s run with this again, but with a look at what the biggest books of fall 2025 are likely to be. These are based on the very last thing mentioned above, titles that boast a sizable print run and that have garnered more space in any given publisher catalog. If you work in any place where young people will be seeking out books, like a library or classroom, you might want to preorder these. If you’re simply a lover of all things YA, well, here’s your opportunity to get ahead of the curve with what will likely be hot at the start of the new year.
I’ve broken this down into two lists. All of the books considered for these lists are from the big five publishers for the sake of ease. It should come as little surprise that, despite better work in publishing books by people of color, they still do not get the same level of marketing/publicity cash as white author counterparts do.
In this first list, each book will have projected print runs beginning at 100,000 copies, if that information was provided. I’ve noted what was listed in each catalog entry and want to point out that some of these have significant print runs not only in their hardcover editions but in deluxe editions publishing simultaneously. A couple of paperbacks have pretty impressive numbers, too, which you’ll see.
A 100,000 print run is huge. It also doesn’t necessarily mean that that many copies will be published, but it is a pretty certain indication the intention is for that book to be a lead title.
The second is for publishers who do not provide print run information; some publishers, like Penguin Random House and Scholastic, simply don’t include this in their catalogs. I’ve pulled titles with flashy advertising in the catalog and/or are selling entire display sets of that title. That’s pre-publication spending they’re making in hopes of catching the attention of future bulk buyers.
Something noteworthy with this season’s blockbuster books: there is a LOT of money being put into romantasy. Hopefully this comes with a nice payoff, but given that earlier this month Publisher’s Weekly reported a softening in romantasy sales for adult books, there’s definitely going to be some uncertainty here. You’ll also find plenty of familiar names among the big YA books of fall 2025, as well as titles from bestselling series. I did not include titles here being reprinted or promoted again with fancy hardcover or paperback editions; I wanted this to be about the new books and not the older titles now being repackaged for the special edition audience (an example would be Sabaa Tahir’s Heir or a reissue of The Perks of Being a Wallflower by Stephen Chbosky).
The Biggest YA Books for Fall 2025
By Noted Print Runs
Grim and Oro by Alex Aster (September 30)
Something noteworthy for fall is that there are multiple hardcover novellas being published. But “novella” seems to be a bit of a misnomer, as few of the novellas are actually all that short. This bind-up of novellas set in Aster’s Lightlark world comes in at a whopping 504 pages–that’s an average of 250 pages for each “novella.”
This has a projected 600,000 print run. The forthcoming collectors and paperback editions of Nightbane and Skyshade also have some wild print runs as well, at 300,000 and 500,000 respectively.
Seven Deadly Thorns by Amber Hamilton (November 4)
This dark academia romantasy combines some favorites among YA readers, and the publisher is betting big on this debut author with a 300,000 first print run.
Sisters in the Wind by Angeline Boulley (September 2)
It’s not surprising to see the next standalone thriller from Boulley see a 250,000 print run. She’s been earning her reputation as a strong YA writer since her debut. This story follows a teen in the foster care system working to claim her heritage.
A Fate So Cold by Amanda Foody and C. L. Herman (November 4)
A Fate So Cold is the second duology by writing duo Foody and Herman, so it’s not a big surprise to see that it’ll have a major 250,000 first printing. It is a Chosen Two story about magic tied to the seasons.
An Archive of Romance by Ava Reid (December 9)
Ava Reid has published several YA books this year, and her reputation continues to grow as a writer in the category. This is a novella addition to her “A Study in Drowning” series and, as I noted above, this “novella” clocks in at the size of a regular novel at 250 pages. It’s being published in full color and includes letters, poems, art, and ephemera as real fan service for readers.
This will get a 250,000 printing.
The House Saphir by Marissa Meyer (November 4)
An author who has become a staple in YA is Marissa Meyer, and her fresh take on Bluebeard hits shelves this fall. I’d expect to see a lot more about Meyers and her YA work in the coming months and years, especially as The Lunar Chronicles is on deck for animated adaptation in fall 2028.
Her latest book will have a 200,000 printing.
Also, note that November 4 appears to be Blockbuster YA release day. Bookshops and libraries will be busy.
Make Me a Monster by Kalynn Bayron (September 30)
There’s zero question that Kaylann Bayron is one of the hardest working writers in children’s literature, and her profile continues to grow as a go-to for all things speculative fiction (though for my money, her short story in We Mostly Come Out at Night is an under-appreciated gem!).
Her next book, a “Frankenstein-tinged horror romance,” per the description, will see a 200,000 first printing. I’m in!
The YA titles below all have print runs of 150,000:
The YA title below will have print runs of 125:
The YA titles below all have print runs of 100,000:
Two other books I wanted to include on the big print run list but that didn’t quite make it to the 100,000 mark include Thorn Season by Kiera Azar (yes, romantasy) and Flip by Ngozi Ukazu (it’ll have a 95,000 print run between the simultaneous hardcover and paperback releases).
By Splashy Advertising and/or Display Opportunities
Here are what publishers are promoting heavily already, even if they don’t have print run numbers to share. You know they’re going to be well-positioned by bonus advertising right in Edelweiss and/or the inclusion of book displays in the publisher catalogs.
It won’t be surprising to see many familiar names here, as well as popular series and franchises.
It’s going to be a busy fall, and we’re in for plenty of great reads–this only scratches the surface in what’s hitting shelves in the latter part of 2025.