Guinea’s Mamadi Doumbouya: Military man to be sworn in as a civilian president

From the moment he seized power in September 2021 Guinea’s Mamadi Doumbouya struck an imposing figure.

Just 36 years old at the time, the broad-shouldered colonel, standing at well over six feet (1.8m), wearing military fatigues, mirrored sunglasses and a red beret certainly made an impression when announcing the coup.

A relatively unknown member of an elite army unit, he declared that the government of ousted President Alpha Condé had disregarded democratic principles and that citizens’ rights were being trampled on.

After more than four years of acting as interim president, and going back on a promise not to run for leadership of the country, Doumbouya, now 41, is set to be sworn in as the elected head of state on Saturday.

The discreet, disciplined and private man won 87% of the vote in December’s election against a severely depleted field.

Ex-Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo, now in exile, described the process as a charade which generated “fabricated” results.

While seemingly enjoying some popular support, critics have questioned Doumbouya’s democratic credentials as some political parties have been banned, activists have mysteriously disappeared and media outlets been shut down.

Scrolling back through the social media accounts from the president’s office there is a sense of a carefully curated image.

The army man, now a general, has, for the main, ditched the camouflage in favour of the baseball cap and tracksuit, or a boubou – traditional Guinean attire of loose-fitting robes with elaborate embroidery. The shades though are still at times in evidence.

Pictures show him at the opening of schools, or transport and mining infrastructure or cycling through the streets of the capital, Conakry. The message is clear: this is a man of action who is working on behalf of the people.

“This was presenting an image of someone who can be close to civilians, someone who is a civilian leader and can be representative of the people,” Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst with Dakar-based security intelligence firm Control Risks, told the BBC.

“In some ways this is distancing himself from what brought him to power – a coup – and the fact that his entire career has been in the military.”

In the 15 years before he took power, Doumbouya gained extensive international experience, including being educated to master’s level in France and serving in the French Foreign Legion. He was also in Afghanistan, Ivory Coast, Djibouti, Central African Republic and worked on close protection in Israel, Cyprus and the UK.

But the donning of civilian clothes may not be entirely sincere, according to some analysts.

“I’m not sure I’m convinced that he has transitioned from a military man. I think that the military costume will remain even if he is conducting the return to civilian order,” argued Aïssatou Kanté, a researcher in the West Africa office of the Institute of Security Studies.

She referred to a ban on political demonstrations, the exclusion of Doumbouya’s main challengers in December’s election and the suspension of key opposition parties.

Human rights campaigners have demanded to know the whereabouts of two activists – Oumar Sylla (known as Foniké Menguè) and Mamadou Billo Bah – who have not been seen since July 2024. They suspect the men were taken by the military.

Press freedom organisation Reporters Without Borders has also expressed concern that journalist Habib Marouane Camara has been missing for more than a year. It has described how journalists are now censoring themselves and are fearful about what might happen to them.

Nevertheless, the 2021 coup was widely welcomed in the country and since then Doumbouya appears to have remained a popular figure.

Polling organisation Afrobarometer found that between 2022 and 2024 the proportion of people who trusted the president either “partially” or “a lot” grew from 46% to 53%.

The president-elect may not have a clearly defined ideology guiding him but for Kanté his emphasis on Guineans being in control of their own destiny has become very important.

“It’s what keeps coming up in official speeches – this affirmation of political and economic sovereignty,” she told the BBC.

In his address to the nation a few days into the new year, he struck a conciliatory tone, calling on all Guineans to build a nation of peace and “fully assumed” sovereignty.

In a country that continues to grapple with high levels of poverty despite plentiful natural resources – including the world’s largest reserves of bauxite, which is used to make aluminium – this idea strikes a chord.

The government’s messaging on the development of the vast iron-ore resources in Simandou underscores the possible benefits for the people.

The three billion tonnes of ore available in a remote southern part of the country, which began to be exported last month, could transform the global iron market, as well as Guinea’s fortunes.

The authorities say earnings from the project, partly owned by Chinese miners as well as the British-Australian corporation Rio Tinto, will be invested in new transport infrastructure as well as health and education.

The success or otherwise of Simandou may define Doumbouya’s presidency.

He appears determined to keep some of the processing and added-value parts of the industry in Guinea to ensure greater benefits.

Across the broader mining sector, his government has cancelled dozens of contracts over the past year where it was felt that the companies were not investing in Guinea – a move that has led one UAE-based firm to take the country to an international court.

“This move towards resource nationalism makes him look like a local hero. He looks like he’s really fighting for the rights of his citizens, even if that means business disruptions,” said analyst Ochieng.

The emphasis on sovereignty has also led to a pragmatic approach to international relations, observers say. Unlike coup leaders elsewhere in West Africa, Doumbouya has not outrightly rejected the former colonial power France in favour of Russia.

Neither, despite his background in France and having a French wife, has he been accused of being a puppet of Paris.

Doumbouya very much wants to be seen as someone running things in the interests of the country.

Come Saturday, the president will preach a message of national unity and will hope that he can usher in a new era of prosperity for Guinea.