This One Decision Can Turn Uncertainty Into Your Biggest Opportunity

Every major leap in my career, and every transformation I’ve led, began with a decision that involved risk, uncertainty and discomfort. If you’re a leader, you’ve likely faced similar inflection points.

Years ago, at Washington State University, we launched one of the first fully online undergraduate Management Information Systems (MIS) programs. At the time, it was uncharted territory. Few business schools had ventured into online learning, and many questioned whether students or employers would take the format seriously. Failure carried reputational and financial consequences. But waiting would reduce the downside while guaranteeing we’d miss the upside.

This is the nature of bold bets: uncomfortable, uncertain, and often unpopular. But when they align with your mission and are made with forethought, they can transform your business.

Here are five principles I’ve used to make mission-driven bets without putting the organization at unnecessary risk.

1. Make sure the mission justifies the risk

A bold bet should feel worth it. At Washington State, our mission was to increase access to quality education. Going online was risky, but it was also a path to greater inclusion, reach and relevance. That clarity gave us conviction.

Ask yourself: What goal justifies short-term discomfort? Who benefits if this works? Does the potential reward justify the risk?

If you can’t answer clearly, you’re not ready. But if the answers energize you, you’re on the right track.

2. Build a team that thrives in uncertainty

Bold moves are made or broken by the people behind them. A bold bet without the right team will fail. When I look back at large-scale transformations I’ve led — like creating classroom-of-the-future facilities or launching early online degree programs — the common thread is always the team.

To increase the odds of success, assemble people who:

• Are comfortable not having all the answers
• Offer diverse viewpoints and prioritize progress over ego
• Contribute energy rather than resistance

Momentum comes from people who want to move the bet forward. Hire for energy, not friction. You’ll need it.

3. Seek out criticism before you think you need it

Too many leaders avoid scrutiny until it’s too late. Early pushback can save your best ideas from preventable failure.

When we faced an accreditation challenge, we involved faculty, alumni, and staff in problem-solving. Their input helped identify flaws, avoid pitfalls, and gain alignment quickly.

To replicate this:

• Share early thinking with people who will be affected
• Ask specifically where the idea could fail
• Integrate their concerns into your plan
• Treat resistance as data, not opposition

Embracing critique early reduces the friction later.

4. Time your boldness strategically

Bold doesn’t mean impulsive. Assess whether the timing supports the bet — not just whether the opportunity is exciting. Ask yourself: Is your team ready? Are external conditions favorable? Do you have the resources to follow through?

A good idea at the wrong time can become a liability. When timing and readiness align, a bold move becomes a catalyst.

5. Let data inform you, but don’t let it paralyze you

Before launching our online program, we reviewed trends in enrollment, workforce needs and tech adoption. The data indicated growing demand from working adults and comfort with online platforms.

But data doesn’t answer everything. It couldn’t predict how faculty would adapt or how quickly the program would scale. That required judgment and experience. We paired data with our knowledge of capabilities and grounded the decision in our mission to expand access for students who otherwise couldn’t earn a degree.

Data should validate opportunity, not replace judgment. Use it to shape direction, then pair it with institutional knowledge and mission clarity to make the final call.

Take the bet that moves you forward

Bold decisions aren’t reckless — they’re calculated risks grounded in purpose, timing and team alignment. They only become dangerous when taken without clarity or care.

When you choose a mission that matters, test your ideas, rally the right people, seek honest feedback and act at the right moment. Bold bets then become engines of growth and impact.

The first step is the hardest—and the most important.

Every major leap in my career, and every transformation I’ve led, began with a decision that involved risk, uncertainty and discomfort. If you’re a leader, you’ve likely faced similar inflection points.

Years ago, at Washington State University, we launched one of the first fully online undergraduate Management Information Systems (MIS) programs. At the time, it was uncharted territory. Few business schools had ventured into online learning, and many questioned whether students or employers would take the format seriously. Failure carried reputational and financial consequences. But waiting would reduce the downside while guaranteeing we’d miss the upside.