As a climate activist, Richard Gokrun has long worried his island home of Tuvalu would disappear as sea levels rise. Over the past six weeks, as war in the Middle East has choked up the strategic Strait of Hormuz, he has had a more urgent concern: will there be enough fuel to cook?
“If power generation is totally cut off because of no fuel, that’s a really big crisis for the people here in Tuvalu,” said Gokrun, 43, who runs a barbecue restaurant and is one of the lucky few with a backup generator. “We’re a small country so we have to be prepared.”
The country of about 11,000 people, nine islands and 10 square miles located in the Pacific between Australia and Hawaii, may be a world away from Iran but the fuel crisis that is rippling through global supply chains is being felt on its shores.
On Friday, Tuvalu’s government said in a statement that fuel supply was “stable for now” with a delivery expected to arrive next month. It said efforts continued to ensure supply and “prepare for any worst-case fuel shortage scenario”. A government minister had earlier said it does not have guarantees of consistent supply “beyond June”.
Tuvalu, best known for its vulnerability to rising sea levels and for its landmark climate visa agreement with Australia, is already grappling with power cuts that predate the conflict and that are linked to its ageing generators and grid system.
The Pacific region as a whole is vulnerable. It depends on imported fuel for about 80 per cent of its energy, according to research group Zero Carbon Analytics.
“Without fuel, the Pacific stops,” said José Luis Sousa-Santos, associate professor at the University of Canterbury’s Pacific Regional Security Hub in New Zealand.
The crisis threatens to increase tension in a region that has already become a flashpoint between China and western nations such as the US, Australia and New Zealand.
Pacific countries had made it “very clear” they wanted a regional approach to the energy crisis that could involve working with Australia and New Zealand to secure fuel, said Sousa-Santos.
“If [they] don’t assist . . . then we know which country will come to the Pacific and target certain Pacific states in which they have strategic interests. China will come in,” he said. On Friday, the government of Tuvalu said Australia was helping it strengthen fuel storage capacity.
With fuel imports representing up to a quarter of total imports in the region, “governments with already stretched fiscal positions have very little room to cushion the blow”, said Munkhtuya Altangerel, the UN Development Programme representative for the Pacific.
In Tuvalu, energy minister Simon Kofe this month warned of disruptions from its sole contractor that sources its fuel from the refining hubs of Singapore and South Korea.
“We’re quite worried that countries like Tuvalu and other small island nations may not be a priority for some of these bigger countries, so we need to prepare now and have storage in place before that time arrives,” he told regional media after a two-week state of emergency was declared.
The Tuvaluan government did not respond directly to a request for comment on the latest fuel situation.
Diesel and petrol prices have risen 40 per cent and 30 per cent since the crisis began, Kofe said. Petrol stations, where the capital’s ubiquitous, mostly Chinese-made scooters pull up to refill by the roadside, sell unleaded petrol for as high as A$2.70 (US$1.92) a litre and diesel for up to A$3.40 a litre.
“It’s too expensive,” said Frank PMuller, 43, a fisherman and owner of a shop that sells ice cream and cold drinks in the sweltering capital where temperatures are near 30C all year round. “When everything is going up, like the fuel, that’s when we start to suffer . . . we can’t really afford [it].”
Like many in Tuvalu, he depends on fishing to make a living and has passed on rising costs to consumers. Prices for some freshly caught fish, a staple cited by locals as a sign of inflation, have risen from about A$6 to A$7 a kilogramme.
“It’s becoming more expensive to take the boat out, so of course it’s a worry for the business,” said one fisherman, who declined to be named, as he cleaned and cut his catch for the day on a beach.
Even small shifts can hurt households in one of the world’s smallest economies, where fishing accounts for nearly half of GDP. The rest comes from its leasing of the “.tv” internet domain, used by tech streaming company Twitch and others, as well as its sovereign wealth fund and remittances.
Tuvalu’s remoteness adds to its challenges.
Only a few flights a week land on the airstrip that doubles as a running track, volleyball court and general hub of the community.
More crucially, the capital of Funafuti, where two-thirds of the population live, delivers supplies to the other eight islands by boat. “That’s the only way to get all the food from the main island . . . to those people living on the outer islands who don’t have anything else,” said petrol station worker Fokiga Vakatapu, 26.
Michael Copage, founder of climate and security advisory CoTerran, said the crunch also put into focus the dependence on fossil fuels ahead of this year’s pre-COP meetings on climate, which will be held in Fiji and Tuvalu.
“The longer-term question is whether we are witnessing an inflection moment that will translate into accelerated transition to renewables and local energy storage — or if near-term fuel pressure responses sap momentum for those longer-term investments.”
Pacific countries have made progress in adopting renewable energy. Tuvalu, one of the few nations to recognise Taiwan diplomatically, also boasts Taiwanese solar panels. Others in the Pacific, however, are more eager to seek Beijing’s expertise in renewables.
The UNDP’s Altangerel argued that “the transition to renewable, community-owned energy systems is the single most effective hedge available against this kind of external shock”.
For now, although the prices may weigh heavily on Tuvaluan wallets, some in the capital are unbothered by the prospect of shortages. “It’s a small country; we can walk,” one said.
Additional reporting by Kieran Cash and Nic Fildes