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Brent crude oil surged to its highest price since 2022 after Donald Trump said he did “not want to” end his blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, deepening a global energy crisis triggered by the US war in Iran.
The global oil benchmark rose as much as 7.6 per cent to $119.76 a barrel in its eighth consecutive day of gains, the longest streak in almost four years.
The climb to a four-year high came as traders lost optimism that the three-week-old ceasefire in the war would allow for the resumption of energy flows from the Gulf. US crude benchmark WTI climbed 7.4 per cent to $107.31 a barrel.
The rally on Wednesday accelerated after the US president signalled that he would keep blockading the strait until Iran agreed a deal to end its nuclear programme.
“The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can’t have a nuclear weapon,” Trump told Axios.
“They want to settle. They don’t want me to keep the blockade. I don’t want to [lift the blockade], because I don’t want them to have a nuclear weapon.”
Shipping through the Strait, a critical choke point that carried about 20 per cent of the world’s oil before the conflict began, remains close to a standstill due to the threat of Iranian attacks and a US naval blockade.
“Oil will rise several dollars every day as long as there is no end in sight,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “Markets are tightening and prices need to reflect that.”
The price surge has sent fuel costs in major economies sharply higher, raising fears of new damaging wave of inflation. US petrol prices rose to $4.23 a gallon on Wednesday, according to motoring group AAA — their highest level since the US and Iran launched the war on Iran.
Analysts warned that oil prices could rise further as long as Gulf energy supplies remained blocked.
Hamad Hussain of Capital Economics said that “the potential for a sudden reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has been a key factor holding back oil prices from climbing even further”. But markets were responding to “increased speculation that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could last for months, rather than days or weeks”.
Traders have brushed aside concerns of rising production in response to the United Arab Emirates’ decision on Tuesday to leave Opec.
The UAE has been pumping far below its Opec quota since the conflict began because its ability to export has been severely curtailed by the Iranian threat to shipping through the strait.
If the strait opens, the UAE might raise its production to 4.5mn barrels a day or more, more than 1mn barrels higher than its prewar production, said HSBC in a note.
Rising oil prices added fuel to a sell-off in European government bonds, as investors bet central banks will have to lift interest rates to contain the resulting inflation. The two-year UK gilt yield climbed 0.1 percentage points to cross above 4.5 per cent for the first time since late March. Italian yields of the same maturity rose a similar amount.
Traders are now expecting three quarter-point increases from the European Central Bank by the end of the year. The Bank of England is expected to lift borrowing costs two or three times by December, according to levels implied by derivative markets.
“What began as a geopolitical disruption is now settling into a more persistent phase,” said Nadège Dufossé, global head of multi-asset at Candriam.
Additional reporting by Peter Wells in New York