Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is on a historic visit to South Africa, signalling a dramatic improvement in the once-strained relations between the two nations.
The visit marks a diplomatic breakthrough for the Ukrainian leader in his efforts to counter Russia’s strong – and growing – influence in Africa.
“I’m sure that Russia will be annoyed by the visit, but I don’t think it can do much about it,” said Steven Gruzd of the South African Institute of International Relations think-tank.
But Russia disrupted Zelensky’s visit by carrying out an air strike on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, forcing him to announce that he will cut short the trip.
“I am cancelling part of the programme for this visit and will return to Ukraine immediately after the meeting with the President of South Africa,” Zelensky said on social media.
Apart from a brief stopover in Cape Verde in 2023 while flying to Argentina, this is Zelensky’s first visit to Africa since he became Ukraine’s president in 2019.
Ukraine grasped the diplomatic significance of African states, when many of them – including regional powerhouse South Africa – refused to condemn Russia’s full-scale invasion of its territory in 2022.
“Ukraine neglected the continent in terms of foreign policy, but it has changed that over the last three years, doubling its embassies from 10 to 20,” Mr Gruzd told the BBC.
“But it’s in a very crowded space – Russia, China, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates are all trying to increase their influence in Africa.”
Zelensky’s visit to South Africa at this point is especially significant, as Ukraine’s relationship with the US – its main weapons supplier – has soured since President Donald Trump took office in January.
He briefly paused military aid, denounced Zelenksy as a “dictator”, and has accused Ukraine of being responsible for the war.
“Ukraine needs every bit of legitimacy it can get internationally – not just in Europe. Wars aren’t only won in the battlefield, but also in courts of public opinion around the world,” said Prof Siphamandla Zondi, a political analyst at the University of Johannesburg.
For South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, the visit is equally significant, as his country, too, is under intense pressure from the Trump administration.
“The US has turned diplomacy on its head,” Mr Gudz said, adding: “Everyone is looking for new friends.”
Ramaphosa sees Zelensky’s visit as an attempt to boost his credentials as a peacemaker, saying their talks will focus on efforts to find “a path to peace”.
The South African leader added that he and Putin had held a phone conversation ahead of Zelensky’s visit.
“We both affirmed the strong bilateral relations between our respective countries,” Ramaphosa said in a post on X.
“We further committed to working together towards a peaceful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” he added.
Ramaphosa first tried to assume the role of peacemaker in 2023 when he led a delegation of African leaders to both Kyiv and Moscow in an attempt to mediate an end to the conflict.
The initiative came as South Africa faced a backlash from then-US President Joe Biden’s administration, which questioned its professed neutrality in the conflict after it held a naval exercise with Russia and China.
Relations worsened after Washington’s then-ambassador to Pretoria accused South Africa of supplying arms and ammunition to Russia.
Ramaphosa later appointed a judge-led inquiry to investigate the allegation. It found no evidence to back up the ambassador’s claim, but relations between South Africa and the Biden administration remained strained.
South Africa’s ties with Russia have not been a sore point for Trump, as he too gets along with Putin and has been pushing Zelensky to make a deal with the Russian leader.
However, Trump’s relationship with South Africa has reached rock bottom over its genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and for what he calls the “unjust and immoral practices” against the white-minority Afrikaner community – an allegation Ramaphosa’s government denies.
Prof Zondi said South Africa would have to ensure that Ramaphosa’s talks with Zelensky did not hurt its attempts to mend relations with the Trump administration.
“South Africa will want to explain that it is adding to the efforts to build peace, and its role is not in competition with that of [the] US,” he added.
Ramaphosa was on cue, announcing on Thursday that he had spoken to Trump about the conflict in Ukraine.
Crucially, Ramaphosa also seized the opportunity to discuss relations between South Africa and the US, and said he and Trump had agreed to meet soon.
This would be their first meeting since Trump’s return to office, and Ramaphosa will be hoping that US-South Africa relations get back on track.
Earlier this month, Trump announced a 30% tariff on South African goods, although he later paused the hike for 90 days.
Ramaphosa will be hoping that their talks lead to Trump softening his stance, as such high tariffs would be a major blow to South Africa’s economy.
Prof Zondi said he also expected Ramaphosa’s talks with Zelensky to focus on strengthening trade ties with Ukraine, as South Africa’s economy was in crisis, with low growth and high unemployment.
“Any volume of trade, no matter how small, is critical for South Africa,” he said, adding that strong relations between the two nations could also benefit Ukraine in its efforts to extend its influence on the continent.
“South Africa could be Ukraine’s gateway to Africa because of its ports and financial systems,” Prof Zondi said.
If this happens, it would mark a new chapter in Ukraine-Africa relations, though not necessarily at the expense of Russia.
“Both Russia and Ukraine are the biggest exporters of cereals to Africa. Africa needs both. It cannot be expected to choose sides,” the analyst said.