Donald Trump’s Gaza peace deal is a huge moment but this is just the beginning

It is a major moment in this most grievous Gaza war.

Most of all, it is a human moment. The first sparks tell this story: the dancing in the dark in Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square, the eruption of joy in the dead of night in the ruined streets of Gaza.

In the coastal enclave where so much of life as they knew it has been smashed by war, Palestinians went through the streets, like medieval town criers, waking people up with shouts of “good news, the war has stopped, a ceasefire deal has been reached”.

If all unfolds as it should on Thursday, the last of the Israeli hostages will be home within days and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners will also return to their loved ones. The guns will fall silent in Gaza, more aid will flow into the ravaged enclave, and Palestinians won’t live each day fearing it could be their last.

But even now some details, including the names of the Palestinian detainees to be freed, are being argued over. And there’s strident opposition to this agreement inside Israel’s cabinet.

Still, there is a collective sigh of relief across this region, and around a world pulled passionately into this conflagration more than any other conflict.

But this is just the beginning, it is not the end. It is a ceasefire, not a peace deal. The toughest of issues are still on the table.

Will Hamas agree to give up its guns? Will Israel eventually pull its troops out of Gaza? What about the vague “political horizon” mentioned in US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan, which much of the world translates as the establishment of a Palestinian state and which Israel’s government still firmly rejects?

And, more immediately, will both sides implement their side of this agreement?

Those are issues for tomorrow.

President Trump likes to take credit and this time credit is due. It’s already been announced that he will travel to Israel this weekend. Never has the first phase of what is certain to be a tortuous process of negotiations, of breakthroughs and breakdowns, been marked by such fanfare.

But never has a US president wielded such pressure on allies and enemies – and the list is long of leaders who tried to clinch a deal to achieve a lasting peace in the Middle East.

Former state department official Aaron David Miller, who worked on this file with both Republican and Democratic presidents, marvelled at this moment when he spoke to the BBC in the early hours of Thursday.

Only weeks ago, as President Trump backed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence on the need to intensify Israel’s military operations, this Gaza war of unprecedented human cost was expected to drag on until the end of this year, even into the next one.

Only weeks ago, when I asked a senior Arab official “who has President Trump’s ear?”, the answer was “no one”.

Then the emboldened Israeli leader took a step too far in early September when he authorised an attack on Hamas leaders living in the Gulf state of Qatar.

It infuriated Qatar, which has played a pivotal role in trying to mediate an end to this crisis. It infuriated President Trump who cherishes his strong, many-faceted relationship, including colossal investment deals and close personal friendships, with the leaders of Qatar, as well as many other Arab states.

His meeting in New York in mid-September with Arab and Islamic leaders accelerated this momentum as the US leader finally focused on ending this fight.

And, crucially, the families of Israeli hostages finally got his full attention too.

By early October, President Trump was posting photographs on social media of Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square packed with people and impassioned pleas to him personally to bring every hostage home, alive or dead. “Now or never” was their rallying cry. And he heard it.

Much has been said too of his burning desire to be awarded the top prize for peacemakers, the Nobel Peace Prize. He doesn’t hide it and has even called Norwegian leaders, including the former Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, about it. Such is the shape of our world today.

Behind the scenes of ceasefire talks, others working in the shadows made a major difference too. Qatar, Egypt and Turkey exerted huge pressure on Hamas, persuading even the most hard-line commanders in its ranks that there was more to be gained now in freeing the hostages, than in holding on to them. Keeping them would only keep a war going which has significantly weakened them in every way even if it has not destroyed their movement.

This moment is also bittersweet.

There is grumbling that this first phase is roughly the same plan US President Joe Biden had put on the table last May. How many lives could have been saved, including the lives of Israeli hostages? How much suffering of the Palestinians could have been avoided had all sides come to the table last year instead of this year?

What matters now is the 7 October war, in the week of its terrible two-year mark, has reached a major turning point. It may still falter and even fail in the months to come. Palestinians will agonise, in the rubble of their homes, over how long it will take to build what is left of their lives.

Those living in the occupied West Bank fear for their future too. And Israeli politicians are already plotting over the next elections and arguing over the next stages of this deal to ensure there is never another 7 October.

But long-awaited serious negotiations over how to move forward, not further back, have started, and are succeeding.

This is a moment to celebrate.