Berlin — German leader Friedrich Merz’s position is under threat as the far-right surges in popularity and support for his own center-right party tanks. The situation is so serious that he canceled a planned trip to New York next week to represent his country at the United Nations General Assembly.
Merz, a conservative, is facing tremendous pressure in the wake of the far-right AfD’s landslide state election victory in Saxony-Anhalt last week.
Their success, fueled by frustration among many Germans about the impact of immigration, came at the expense of Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party. It has accelerated a monthslong trend that spells trouble for the center-right leader of Europe’s biggest economy.
Merz’s poll ratings have fallen sharply. His government is grappling with a weak economy, and many voters who had hoped the former corporate executive would fix that have become disillusioned with delays in implementing financial and tax reforms.
The pressure has raised a once-unthinkable question in Berlin: Could Merz be forced out as chancellor before the end of his term?
“A genuine crisis of authority and leadership”
The chancellor’s crisis goes beyond poor polling, veteran journalist Kerstin Münstermann told CBS News.
“We are witnessing a genuine crisis of authority and leadership within the CDU,” said Münstermann, who has covered Merz’s career closely as a member of the regional Rheinische Post’s editorial board and head of its Berlin parliamentary bureau.
When Merz became chancellor early last year, many Germans saw him, above all else, as someone who could help revive the flagging economy. The former corporate lawyer and board member had worked for years to position himself as a strong economic hand to take the reins from Angela Merkel and her successor Olaf Scholz.
But “the situation for people has not noticeably improved,” Münstermann told CBS News. “If anything, it has gotten worse.”
The economic upturn promised by Merz has, undeniably, not materialized. While Germany is again seeing moderate growth, the labor market deteriorated last year. In August, more than 3 million people were unemployed, an increase of 36,000 from the previous year. Demand for labor remains weak, according to the Federal Employment Agency.
AfD’s rise fueled by immigration concerns
One of the key issues underlying Merz’s political crisis is immigration.
Concerns about the number of and integration of migrants have shaped the political debate for years in Germany, like many European nations, and they were the key factor in the AfD’s landslide state election victory this month in Saxony-Anhalt.
A resounding 91% of AfD supporters in the state voiced fear of a potential new influx of foreigners, according to an analysis by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, while 85% said they were concerned about immigration causing too much change within German society.
Omer Messinger/Getty 
Merz has attempted to tighten Germany’s migration policies. Just this week the federal government adopted a new 10-point plan to combat Islamist terrorism. Among other things, it provides for stricter surveillance of certain individuals deemed to pose a threat, tougher penalties for spreading terrorist propaganda and amendments to criminal law.
But the pressure on Merz and his party, as the far-right gains ground by focusing almost entirely on the issue, keeps rising, exacerbated by recent acts of violence.
With the new measures, the government is trying to show it can and is taking concrete action on the issue. Whether it will be enough to win back voters who have turned to the AfD will become clearer with every new local and state election.
“Now he’s fighting”
Merz plans to convene his party’s leadership Sunday in Berlin. There are two more state elections that day, in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
If the results for the CDU are as disastrous as they were in Saxony-Anhalt, he will likely face some very tough questions about his leadership and the party’s future.
The chancellor has realized how serious the situation is, Münstermann said, and “now he’s fighting.”
The CDU, which has run Germany’s government off and on for the vast majority of its post-World War II history, is facing a major internal debate due to the AfD momentum.
The party has always ruled out any cooperation with the far-right — refusing to consider entering into a coalition government with the AfD or using votes from its lawmakers to get legislation passed.
That political red line, which all other major German parties also stand behind, is commonly referred to in the country as a “firewall.” But as the AfD gains clout through regional elections, the debate within the CDU over exactly how impermeable that firewall should be is also intensifying.
Some CDU politicians remain adamantly against any cooperation with the AfD. Others now question whether the party should, at least on individual policy initiatives, accept a majority vote in the parliament that can only be achieved with AfD votes.
Münstermann said the issue could deeply divide the CDU, but she believes Merz himself is “very clear on this,” and unlikely to change his position against working with the AfD. Doing so, she said, could lose him the support of moderate party figures who’ve continued to back him.
Could Merz be forced out?
Germany’s constitution makes it difficult to remove a chancellor from office — they cannot simply be replaced by another politician from the same party, even if there is broad consensus within that party.
The parliament, or Bundestag, can oust Merz only through what is known as a constructive vote of no confidence. The bar is high, as it requires a majority of all members of the Bundestag to vote not only to reject the sitting leader, but also to agree on a single replacement at the same time. It has happened only once, in 1982.
Another possibility is a simple vote of confidence. Merz could ask the Bundestag to formally express its confidence in him. If he failed to win a majority, he could ask Germany’s president to dissolve the parliament, which would potentially pave the way for new national elections.
Münstermann does not consider either scenario likely in the near future. She said, however, that calls for a confidence vote could start to rise later this year if Merz loses support of fellow CDU lawmakers on crucial votes, particularly on the budget and planned economic reforms.
Before that, there could be another way for the CDU to show it is heeding the headwinds.
The party could move to separate the office of chancellor from the CDU leadership role, which could then see Merz step down as his party’s leader without automatically resigning as chancellor. It would be a way for the CDU to express its dissatisfaction with Merz without plunging Germany into a governmental crisis.
For now, Merz has appeared focused on trying to show he is still in charge. Eight CDU state leaders publicly backed him this week, temporarily cooling speculation about possible successors.
But it does nothing to resolve the underlying crisis.
“It has not ended the debate over the chancellor,” Münstermann said. “That debate is still there, and it will probably remain after election night” in the two states — including the capital — on Sunday.