Niger’s government is facing threats on two fronts: extremist militant groups attacking the state, and grievances within its armed forces responsible for fighting them. Africa Corps may have helped contain the latter this past weekend, but it has yet to resolve the former.
Unlike Wagner mercenaries, whose status in a private military company allowed Moscow some deniability, Africa Corps is more clearly an instrument of the Russian state.
“The whole point of Africa Corps is that it brings the power back under the control of the Russian Ministry of Defence,” said Boswall.
Officially, its forces are deployed to help Sahel governments combat Islamist militant groups.
But dissidents contemplating moves against military governments elsewhere in the Sahel region may now have to factor Russian forces into their calculations.
Despite the struggle to contain the jihadists, no-one anticipates Africa Corps leaving the Sahel any time soon. Keeping those governments in power protects Russia’s investment.
“Wagner – and now Africa Corps – have always had a very transactional interest in Africa,” Boswall said.
“If they can get mineral resources in exchange for providing protection and defence, then they will. We see that in Mali with gold… and then in Niger, it really is uranium [that] seems to be the main resource that Africa Corps is protecting.”
Analysts say Russia also benefits from having friendly governments that could support it in international forums.
“Having that kind of international group of supportive countries, Russia sees as giving Russia credibility – diplomatic credibility,” Boswall explained.
Like Mali and Burkina Faso, Tiani’s government has built much of its legitimacy using the language of sovereignty, pan-Africanism and liberation from former colonial powers.
All three governments ordered French troops to leave. They also formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and subsequently withdrew from the West African regional bloc Ecowas, presenting the new alliance as an assertion of regional independence.
Some analysts regard this as at odds with its growing reliance on Africa Corps.
“The military governments argue that they have selected Russia on their own terms,” said Ochieng.
“Russia is seen as a partner that respects that sovereignty, unlike their previous partnerships with France or even the EU and, to some extent, with the US.”