Bernstein analysts on Monday maintained their $150,000 target for Bitcoin (BTC) despite the recent sell-off that they said was being driven by lacking investor confidence rather than structural stress.
Calling the pullback the “weakest bear case” in the asset’s history, the analysts’ note to investors said no major failures have emerged across Bitcoin’s market plumbing, and pointed to relatively modest 7% net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs even as BTC price dropped by about 50%.
“The current Bitcoin price action is a mere crisis of confidence. Nothing broke, no skeletons will show up,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said.
Bernstein said Bitcoin’s recent underperformance relative to gold reflects its continued treatment as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a long-term safe haven. The analysts said tight financial conditions and elevated rates have favored artificial intelligence-linked equities and precious metals, limiting near-term upside for Bitcoin despite broader adoption trends.
The report also pushed back on several of the emerging risk narratives, including concerns that artificial intelligence is diverting capital away from crypto or that quantum computing poses an imminent threat to Bitcoin. Bernstein wrote:
Framing quantum computing as a Bitcoin-killer ignores the timeline, the upgrade path and the fact that the entire digital world shares the same vulnerability and will migrate together.
Addressing leverage at major corporate Bitcoin holders such as Michael Saylor’s Strategy, Bernstein said the company relies largely on long-dated perpetual preferred equity and maintains enough cash to cover dividends without near-term refinancing risk.
As well, the analysts expect Bitcoin miners to capitulate and sell as the price moves below their production cost.
After addressing the prevailing bear case narratives, Bernstein predicted Bitcoin is likely to return to new highs as liquidity conditions improve. The company reiterated its $150,000 Bitcoin price target for 2026.
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Institutions view Bitcoin pullback as entry point as traders warn of further downside
On Friday, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said Bitcoin’s move below $70,000 is being interpreted differently across the market, with long-time holders showing caution while institutional investors view the pullback as a renewed entry opportunity.
Speaking on CNBC, Horsley said institutions are revisiting price levels they previously believed they had missed. He attributed the decline to broader macro pressure rather than crypto-specific stress, saying Bitcoin is trading in line with other liquid assets as investors “sell everything that is liquid.”
While Horsley framed the sell-off as a macro-driven reset in positioning, short-term traders remain cautious about Bitcoin’s near-term price trajectory.
On Sunday, independent analysts Filbfilb and Tony Severino highlighted technical indicators they say still signal further downside, while other traders argued that a “real bottom” may not form until Bitcoin falls below $50,000.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of over $126,000 on Oct. 6, but has since fallen to about $70,000 at time of writing, according to CoinGecko data.
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