Iran’s regime may be wondering if an emerging deal to extend its ceasefire with the U.S. is too good to be true.
While talks are ongoing with key details still to be worked out, the outlines of a deal include Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and letting ships pass without paying tolls, sources told Axios. In return, the U.S. would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports and provide some sanctions relief, allowing let Tehran to sell oil openly.
But the most contentious issues must be settled during a 60-day window for talks. That includes Iran’s uranium as well as the U.S. permanently ending sanctions and releasing Iran’s frozen assets abroad, estimated at $25 billion.
The U.S. would also maintain its military presence in the region and only withdraw once a final deal is reached, Axios said. But Trump would still give up significant leverage.
“One of the problems with this approach and deciding that you will just deal with the nuclear issue later is that waiving sanctions on Iranian oil exports now will decrease, not increase, Iran’s motivation for reaching a nuclear agreement,” Eric Brewer, former National Security Council director for counterproliferation, said on X. “Also, by tying those sanctions to the Strait, you’ve lost your ability to reimpose them without a huge risk that Iran retakes control of the waterway.”
Reports that the U.S. and Iran are close to extending their ceasefire have shocked some Republicans, who fear Trump is poised to give away too much.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., warned against a deal that effectively recognizes Tehran’s ability to control the strait, saying it would represent a major shift in the regional balance of power and eventually become a “nightmare” for Israel.
Similarly, Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said a 60-day extension would be a disaster and that “Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, also piled on.
“If the result of all that is to be an Iranian regime—still run by Islamists who chant ‘death to America’—now receiving billions of dollars, being able to enrich uranium & develop nuclear weapons, and having effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, then that outcome would be a disastrous mistake,” he posted on X.
Despite the U.S.-Israeli bombardment devastating Iran’s military and economy, Tehran retained enough combat power to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, using missiles, drones and fast-attack boats.
Meanwhile, Trump has signaled reluctance to resume attacks and break the ceasefire while also cutting short an effort to revive Hormuz traffic by using Navy warships to protect tankers.
With Iran holding the global economy hostage and oil markets due to go off a cliff in a matter of weeks, it has refused to budge on much of its demands.
But even the regime isn’t sure if it can believe the U.S. offer. That’s as previous rounds of talks earlier this year and last year ended in the U.S. dropping bombs on Iran.
“The deal in play looks like a win for Iran. But Tehran is not convinced that it is not a dress rehearsal for war now or in 30 days,” Vali Nasr, a former senior State Department adviser, posted on X. “In fact the more generous the terms for Iran the more the suspicion that U.S. is not serious about peace and wants to distract Iran ahead of another attack.”
As a result, Tehran will be focused on evidence that the U.S. military will back down, he added, and trusting the U.S. will be a “gamble” that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will ultimately decide on making.
U.S. Marine Corps
The Institute for the Study of War pointed out in a report Saturday that Iran’s regime believes it is negotiating from a position of strength “due to its victory in the war.”
Meanwhile, one of Iran’s primary objectives in negotiations is to secure its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, ISW added.
At the same time, the U.S. naval blockade isn’t eroding Iran’s grip because ships that haven’t entered or exited an Iranian port are still free to pass, even if they have accepted conditions imposed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The world can’t wait much longer for the strait to return to normal, but dragging out talks helps normalize Iran’s de facto control, ISW noted in a separate report.
“The Iranians are likely aware of that fact, which is one of the reasons they are stalling and delaying the negotiations process,” it said. “The US and the world should not allow Iran to impose a new reality on this critical international waterway. If negotiations do not lead rapidly to an agreement to reopen the strait under the previous, internationally recognized transit scheme, then it will unfortunately be necessary to resort to force.”