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UK goods exports to US have not recovered from Trump’s tariffs

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UK goods exports to the US have not recovered from President Donald Trump’s introduction of import tariffs in April 2025, pushing Britain into an unusual trade deficit with its largest trading partner.

UK goods exports to the US averaged £4.7bn a month between April 2025 and February 2026, down from a 2024 monthly average of £5.5bn, according to an analysis of the impact of US tariffs published by the Office for National Statistics on Friday.

The ONS noted that goods exports to the US fell £1.5bn, or 25 per cent, in April 2025, following the introduction of tariffs on US imports, and “have remained relatively low since”.

The figures, which excluded volatile precious metals, also showed exports of cars to the US remaining below pre-tariff levels since April 2025.

As a result, the UK has run an unusual trade deficit with the US for three consecutive months since December.

Trump has introduced a range of tariffs on imports of goods into the US since taking office in January 2025. On April 2 2025, dubbed by Trump as “liberation day”, most imports from the UK were subject to a blanket 10 per cent tariff, apart from imports of steel and aluminium, and cars and car parts, which were subject to a previously announced 25 per cent tariff placed on them in March 2025.

However, on May 8 2025, the UK and US announced the “economic prosperity deal”, which included the reduction of tariffs on imports of cars to 10 per cent on the first 100,000 UK car exports to the US per quarter.

The ONS data showed that lower exports of machinery and transport equipment, especially car exports, were the main driver of the overall decrease in goods exports to the US.

Chemical exports have also fallen since the introduction of tariffs, primarily because of a fall in exports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products.

Fhaheen Khan, economist at manufacturing trade body Make UK, said “even the strongest relationships have their limits, and evidently UK manufacturers are willing to turn away from US and seek opportunities for growth elsewhere”.

Trump said on Thursday he would remove all tariffs and restrictions on Scottish whisky imports in honour of King Charles and Queen Camilla’s state visit to the US.

Sophie Hale, economist at the think-tank Resolution Foundation, said: “The latest ONS data confirms that tariffs have caused a worrying decline in the amount that UK firms are selling to the US.”

The suspension of tariffs on Scotch will be cheered by a sector that has also seen exports to the US fall. But with whisky only a very small share of UK trade with the US, “it won’t change a worrying picture of lower trade with our biggest export country,” Hale noted.

In late February this year, one in three businesses with 10 or more employees that had exported goods in the past 12 months reported they were affected by US tariffs, with 18.7 per cent reporting additional costs, according to the ONS bimonthly survey of businesses.

The US is still the UK’s main trading partner for exports of goods, but the share of goods going across the Atlantic fell to 14.9 per cent between April 2025 and February 2026, from 17.2 per cent in 2024. The share of UK goods exports going to Hong Kong and Germany rose 0.8 percentage points and 0.6 percentage points respectively.

“These trends could indicate a change in the direction of trade flows for UK goods exports since the introduction of tariffs,” the ONS noted.

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