David Nicholas, CEO and Founder of XFUNDs by Nicholas Wealth and portfolio manager of several actively managed ETFs including BLOX, which maintains bitcoin as a core holding, views the current bitcoin market as technically damaged.
He notes that BTC is trading roughly 20% below its 50-day moving average, a situation he describes as a “broken chart.” This significant deviation has prompted Nicholas to maintain defensive hedges on the position while monitoring for signs of stabilization.
As of writing, bitcoin changed hands near $61,400, with the 50-day simple moving average at $75,020, according to CoinDesk data.
Despite acknowledging oversold conditions that could fuel a short-term bounce, Nicholas remains cautious. According to him, at least a 20% recovery is needed to turn bullish on BTC, yet even that move would still leave price action well below the 200-day moving average.
Other traders have mentioned levels ranging from $68,000 to $80,000 as thresholds that need to be breached for a bull revival.